søndag 23. august 2009

Blir oppgangen en U, V eller W?

Det kan virke som den bratte nedgangen er over. Finanskrisens dramatiske fall har stoppet opp og noen økonomier viser vekst i BNP-tallene igjen. Også i Norge var det vekst i BNP sist kvartal etter to kvartal med nedgang. The Economist skriver:

"It has been deep and nasty. But the worst global recession since the 1930s may be over. Led by China, Asia’s emerging economies have revived fastest, with several expanding at annualised rates of more than 10% in the second quarter. A few big rich economies also returned to growth"

Men hvor robust er egentlig denne veksten? Det er mye som ikke er tilbake til normalt igjen, for å si det forsiktig. The Economist minner om at det amerikanske boligmarkedet er i alvorlige problemer fortsatt. Og minner oss samtidig om at når regjeringenes krisepakker i form av skatteinsentiver til boligkjøp og bilkjøp, og offentlig støtte for å få fart i byggenæringen tar slutt etter hvert. Da må det være en privat sektor der som er friskmeldt og er klar til å ta stafettpinnen videre. Hvis ikke vil en frisk V-formet oppgang bli til en langtrukken U. Eller like ubehagelig: en tilsynelatende sprek V blir til en smertefull W. Eller for å sitere lederen i The Economist:

"Yet a rebound based on stock adjustments is necessarily temporary, and one based on government stimulus alone will not last. Beyond those two factors there is little reason for cheer. America’s housing market may yet lurch down again as foreclosures rise, high unemployment takes its toll and a temporary home-buyers’ tax-credit ends. Even if housing stabilises, consumer spending will stay weak as households pay down debt. In America and other post-bubble economies, a real V-shaped bounce seems fanciful. Elsewhere, it will happen only if vigorous private domestic demand picks up the baton from government stimulus. In Japan and Germany, where joblessness has further to rise, that seems unlikely any time soon. The odds are better in emerging economies, especially China. But even there an array of reforms, from a stronger currency to an overhaul of subsidies, is needed to boost labour income and encourage consumption. Until that shift takes place, the global recovery will be fragile and probably quite feeble. A gloomy U with a long, flat bottom of weak growth is the likeliest shape of the next few years."