Nå er naturligvis tidlig deadline en krevende rammebetingelse papiraviser alltid har slitt med, men i 1948 var det ikke bare Chicago Daily Tribune som tok feil. Det gjorde også alle meningsmålingene før valget og flere andre aviser. Time Magazine skrev for noen år siden en artikkel om det berømte bildet, der de oppsummerer den rådende stemningen blant alle ekspertene ved valget i 1948 slik:
"In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. (The right-wing, stridently segregationist “Dixiecrat” nominee, Strom Thurmond, won four states—Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and his home state of South Carolina—and 39 electoral votes in 1948.)"
Og Wikipedia beskriver hva som gikk så galt i Chicago Daily Tribune og flere andre aviser slik:
"Conventional wisdom, supported by polls, was almost unanimous that a Dewey presidency was "inevitable", and that the New York governor would win the election handily. The first (one-star) edition of the Tribune therefore went to press with the banner headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN". The story by Tribune correspondent Henning also reported Republican control of the House of Representatives and Senate that would work with President-elect Dewey. Henning wrote that "Dewey and Warren won a sweeping victory in the presidential election yesterday. The early returns showed the Republican ticket leading Truman and Barkley pretty consistently in the western and southern states" and added that "indications were that the complete returns would disclose that Dewey won the presidency by an overwhelming majority of the electoral vote."
Etter bommen i 1948 fikk naturligvis meningsmålingsmetodene og deres utilstrekkelighet stor oppmerksomhet. Og verden fikk bedre meningsmålinger. Så sikker var den mest kjente meningsmålingsbloggen fivethirtyeight.com på at dagens meningsmålinger er av en helt annen klasse enn i 1948 at de i midten av november skrev artikkelen "Clinton-Trump Probably Won’t Be The Next ‘Dewey Defeats Truman". Vi må vel slå fast at det i historiebøkenes lister over spektakulære bomskudd i ekspert- og meningsmålingsbransjens spådommer om valgresultater har kommet en ny og suveren førsteplass.
"Conventional wisdom, supported by polls, was almost unanimous that a Dewey presidency was "inevitable", and that the New York governor would win the election handily. The first (one-star) edition of the Tribune therefore went to press with the banner headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN". The story by Tribune correspondent Henning also reported Republican control of the House of Representatives and Senate that would work with President-elect Dewey. Henning wrote that "Dewey and Warren won a sweeping victory in the presidential election yesterday. The early returns showed the Republican ticket leading Truman and Barkley pretty consistently in the western and southern states" and added that "indications were that the complete returns would disclose that Dewey won the presidency by an overwhelming majority of the electoral vote."
Etter bommen i 1948 fikk naturligvis meningsmålingsmetodene og deres utilstrekkelighet stor oppmerksomhet. Og verden fikk bedre meningsmålinger. Så sikker var den mest kjente meningsmålingsbloggen fivethirtyeight.com på at dagens meningsmålinger er av en helt annen klasse enn i 1948 at de i midten av november skrev artikkelen "Clinton-Trump Probably Won’t Be The Next ‘Dewey Defeats Truman". Vi må vel slå fast at det i historiebøkenes lister over spektakulære bomskudd i ekspert- og meningsmålingsbransjens spådommer om valgresultater har kommet en ny og suveren førsteplass.
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