Ny OECD-analyse om effekter av koronakrisen

Koronakrisen gjør det ekstremt vanskelig å lage gode økonomiske prognoser om verdiskaping, handel, produksjon og forbruk. Bare de å se noen måneder fremover tid har vist seg å være vanskelig, både fordi smittesituasjonen endres, men også fordi markedenes evne til å være fleksible og omstille når det trengs, har vært vanskelig å forutse.

Derfor heter også OECDs ferske økonomiske analyse "Coronavirus: Living with uncertainty".  Der understrekes nettopp denne usikkerheten:

 "The economic outlook remains exceptionally uncertain, with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to exert a substantial toll on economies and societies. Global output in the second quarter of 2020 was over 10% lower than at the end of 2019, an unprecedented sudden shock in modern times. The extent and timing of the pandemic shock differed across the major economies, but all experienced a sharp contraction in activity as necessary containment measures were implemented. Global trade collapsed, declining by over 15% in the first half of 2020, and labour markets were severely disrupted by reductions in working hours, job losses and the enforced shutdown of businesses. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies to cushion the impact of the shock on household incomes and companies, the contraction in output and employment would have been substantially larger.

Output declines of over 20% occurred in some European economies and India, where containment measures were particularly restrictive (Figure 1). Economies relatively dependent on tourism, and other service sector activities requiring social interactions, were also strongly affected. In contrast, a sharper-than-expected recovery took place in China, with activity returning quickly to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the second quarter, fuelled by strong infrastructure investment."

Rapporten slår fast at forbruket i husholdningene har hatt et kraftig oppsving etter den kraftige nedturen i vår, men denne oppgangen er svært ujevnt fordelt. Noen bransjer opplever en høyere etterspørsel enn de hadde før krisen, mens andre ikke er i nærheten av å se slike nivåer. OECD skriver:

"A recovery is now under way following the easing of strict confinement measures and the re-opening of businesses, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile. Amongst the countries with monthly economy-wide estimates of economic activity, a little over one-half of the decline in output between January and April had been restored by July, but with marked differences across countries and sectors. The pick-up in demand, particularly in China, has helped commodity prices to strengthen and improve risk appetite in financial markets. 

Some categories of spending have bounced back relatively quickly, particularly household spending on many durable goods, including cars, where pent-up demand accumulated whilst strict confinement measures were in force. Temporary fiscal incentives have also boosted demand in some countries. Household spending on services, especially ones requiring high levels of social interaction or international travel, has remained more subdued, reflecting changes in consumer behaviour and continued public health restrictions. In the United States and Japan, two countries with monthly estimates of aggregate consumers’ expenditure, total spending remains between 4 and 5 per cent below the immediate pre-pandemic level."