Rekordlav arbeidsledighet i USA

I februar 2020 ble det registrert en arbeidsledighet i USA på 3.5 prosent, den laveste på 50 år. Så kom pandemien og kastet fullstendig om på både økonomien og arbeidsmarkedet. Men nå i juli 2022 er USA tilbake der landet var, med den laveste ledigheten noen gang, med 3,5 prosent ledige, og 32 000  flere personer i jobb enn i februar 2020. New York Times skriver:

"U.S. job growth accelerated in July across nearly all industries, restoring nationwide employment to its prepandemic level, despite widespread expectations of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation. Employers added 528,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday, more than doubling what forecasters had projected. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent, equaling the figure in February 2020, which was a 50-year low."

Bare i juli ble det lagt til 528 000 jobber, langt høyere enn forventet, og siden april 2020 er det blitt skapt 22 millioner flere jobber i USA. Det burde jo føre til at alle er glade og fornøyde. Men slik er det jo ikke. Jeg tror vel aldri forskjellen mellom tallene for ledighet og den generelle stemningen har vært større enn akkurat nå. Noe som ikke skyldes ledighetstallene, men inflasjonstallene. Når energiprisene, matprisene, materialprisene og alt mulig annet blir dyrere er det også sånn at det veldig stramt arbeidsmarked, med lite ledig kapasitet, kan forsterke problemene:

"I’ve never seen a disjunction between the data and the general vibe quite as large as I saw,” said Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist, noting that employment growth is an economic North Star. “It is worth emphasizing that when you try to take the pulse of the overall economy, these data are much more reliable than G.D.P.” But the report could stiffen the Federal Reserve’s resolve to cool the economy. Wage growth sped up, to 5.2 percent over the past year, indicating that labor costs could add fuel to higher prices. The Fed has raised interest rates four times in its battle to curb the steepest inflation in four decades, and policymakers have signaled that more increases are in store. That strategy is likely to lead to a slowdown in hiring later in the year as companies cut payrolls to match expected lower demand."