"If there is one thing worse than a huge rise in interest rates designed to stabilise your currency, it is a huge rise in rates that fails to stabilise your currency. The Russian rouble fell briefly to 80/$ today. It only hit 60/$ yesterday and the fall came despite a 6.5 percentage point jump in interest rates that was announced in the middle of the night, a move that smacked of panic. These are huge currency moves. This looks like a Black Tuesday for Russia akin to the Black Wednesday when Britain was forced out of the exchange rate mechanism (when a big rate rise was proposed, then abandoned), the Black Thursday that was perceived to be start of the Wall Street Crash of 1929 or the Black Monday of October 1987 that saw the Dow fall nearly 23% in one session.
Financial Times viser noe av bakgrunnen for den russiske krisen i en artikkel om "Six charts: roots of Russias Black Tuesday" Her har de samlet en knippe av seks indiaktorer i fem urovekkende grafer som viser utviklingen i: valutakurs, rentenivå, oljepris, inflasjon, BNP-utvikling og valutareserver. Og som de skriver i en kommentar til grafen med tittelen "It's the oilprice stupid";
"Those seeking an explanation for the rouble sell-off should look no further than the price of crude oil. ICE January Brent — the international benchmark — fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday, a five and a half year low and nearly half the $115 a barrel price of six months ago. Oil and gas account for roughly three-quarters of Russia’s exports and more than half the government’s budget revenue."
Men dette handler ikke bare om oljepris. Både New York Times og Financial Times har interessante artikler i dag om koblingen mellom noen private bedrifters kortsiktige finansieringsbehov og noen politiske beslutninger som har bidratt til å utløse dagens kraftige reaksjoner i markedet.
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