Det er naturligvis ikke mulig å forutse akkurat når et statskupp vil inntreffe. Men er det mulig å si noe om hvor det er mest sannsynlig at det vil skje? Og om hvilke forutsetninger som kan bidra til å øke sannsynligheten. Det er The Economist som stiller spørsmålet i artikkelen "How to predict a coup", der de skriver at:
"... as our print-edition story explains, social scientists now have more tools than ever before at their disposal. Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of sudden regime changes is CoupCast, published by One Earth Future, an NGO. CoupCast finds that economic misery is linked to higher coup risk, as is extreme weather. But political factors matter more. Dictators tend to lose popularity when they stay in office for too long. Autocrats who cling to power after losing elections are particularly likely to be deposed. The strongest predictor of future instability is past instability. CoupCast rated Algeria the country most likely to experience a coup just before Mr Bouteflika's exit. As for who might be next, the leaders of Burkina Faso, Afghanistan and South Sudan should be nervous."
Og nettstedet CoupCast har mye data og analyser som er interessante for alle som er opptatt av stabiliteten i ulike land. De beskriver prosjektet sitt slik på nettsiden:
"The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page."
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