Russerne er færre, fattigere og mer misfornøyde

Allerede lenge før invasjonen i Ukraina pekte viktige indikatorer nedover for Russland. De har rett og slett hatt noe veldig dårlige år, særlig etter invasjonen av Krim i 2014. Militære eventyr i blant annet Syria har ikke forsterket problemene. Det samme har Covid-19, som har tatt over en million menneskeliv, langt flere enn i Europa.

The Economist skriver om den lange nedgangen i artikkelen "Russians are fewer, poorer and more miserable than a decade ago":

"The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was greeted with cheers in Russia. But it brought a wave of sanctions and triggered a collapse in oil prices. The subsequent recession hit the economy hard. Average incomes fell, especially for the poorest half of the population. Although GDP per person rebounded by 2018, median incomes did not. According to the Luxembourg Income Study, they were still some 10% lower than their 2012 peak in 2019, the last year for which estimates are available. The World Happiness Report, based on surveys asking people to rate how they feel about their lives, found that the mood in Russia has dipped. Since 2017 Russians have rated themselves as less happy than in 2012."

Bare i 2021 har folketallet i Russland falt med 693 000, i følge The Economist. En viktig bidragsyter til dette er covid, so har hatt i alt 1,2 millioner menneskeliv. Ikke i følge den offisielle statistikken, naturtligvis, der har Russland klart seg relativt bra, men i følge beregninger av "overdødelighet" sammenlignet med de normale dødstallene. Og på toppen av en allerede svært dårlig utvikling kommer den mislykkede krigen Russland har startet i Ukraina, som fører med seg enorme kostnader og nye sanksjoner. I følge The Economist utvikler Russland seg så dårlig økonomisk at de er blant de aller dårligste i verden:

"The IMF predicts a “bad recession”. The Institute of International Finance, a banker group, projects an economic contraction of 15%. That would undo the growth in real incomes over the past decade two times over. All of which is bad enough. But when compared with the world as a whole, or even rich countries in particular, Russia’s decline looks even worse. Over the past decade, GDP in advanced economies has grown by 22%; across the world as a whole it has risen by 41% (both adjusting for price changes). Should projections of a 15% contraction be right, by the end of the year Russia’s economy will be 7% smaller than in 2012. Russia has not just lost a decade of growth—be it in economics, health or happiness. It is moving into the past."